The following narrative focusses on geographic changes as a result of AI. It synthesises my notes on reading C.B. Frey’s The Technology Trap into a concise history of industrial evolution, tracing the shifting relationship between human labour and the machine from the 1700s to the AI-driven future of 2050.

The geographical divide is perhaps the most visible scar left by the "Technology Trap." It illustrates that the impact of progress is not just a matter of what you do, but where you do it. This divergence creates a landscape of "nursery cities" and "regions of despair," further cementing the gap between the skilled and the unskilled.

The Rise of Nursery Cities

"Nursery cities" act as fertile ground for the high-skill jobs of the future. These are urban centres characterised by a high density of innovative companies and "symbolic analysts." In these hubs, Information Technology increases person-to-person contact rather than replacing it; the proximity of skilled people creates a "knowledge spillover" effect that drives further innovation.

Talent Attraction: Innovative firms cluster where the talent is, and skilled people move to be near innovative firms.

Service Divergence: The quality of local services—from schools to healthcare—reflects the collective skill level of the residents, creating a virtuous cycle of wealth and well-being.

Economic Insulation: These cities are often the birthplace of the "new jobs" at the top of the skill table, making them more resilient to the displacing effects of AI.

The Descent into Regions of Despair

Conversely, "regions of despair" are those trapped in the wrong industries with the wrong skill sets. As routine work is automated or moved abroad, these areas lose their economic engine.

The Replacement Trap: In these regions, technology is purely worker-replacing. Without the infrastructure to birth new industries, the "churn" of technological unemployment becomes permanent rather than temporary.

Political Consequences: The link between the degree of automation and voting patterns is most acute here. When the middle class sees its prospects dimming, there is a tendency to favour political parties offering short-term benefits over the long-term structural solutions required for a transition to the AI age.

The Housing Barrier: Much of the inequality between these regions is exacerbated by house building restrictions. High housing costs in nursery cities prevent workers from "regions of despair" from moving to find better work, effectively locking them out of the modern economy.

The AI Shift

As we move toward 2050, AI will likely intensify this divide. Because AI allows for a shift from programmed to learning machines, the "nursery cities" will be the primary beneficiaries of this redesign of work. Those in the regions of despair, lacking the high-income qualifications that protect against automation, face a reality where they are increasingly detached from the economic growth enjoyed by the university-educated elite.

Ultimately, the geographical divide confirms the core thesis: location is now a proxy for skill. In the AI age, the map of a nation or region will be divided between those who possess the skills to thrive in nursery cities and those who, lacking those skills, are left behind in the regions of despair.